Thursday, March 02, 2006

Were you really surprised?

Ever since a couple weeks ago, when it looked like Nebraska had climbed back on the bubble with an improbable win at Iowa State, I pointed to the KSU game at home as one that looked like the classic NU letdown game. The one game left on the schedule that looks like a gimme. You can always bank on Nebraska basketball following up an improbable win with an improbable loss.

In any case, its now worth looking at the standings to guage potential Big XII tournament matchups, if for no other reason than figuring out whether you'll need to take off work.

After Wednesday's games, all conference teams have exactly one game remaining:

Sat: KU @ KSU, aTm @ TT, ISU @ CU, Bay @ OSU
Sun: OU @ Tex, NU @ Mizz

Depending on the outcome of those games, Nebraska can land anywhere from the 5th seed to the 9th seed in Dallas.

Here's what each of those scenarios would look like:

NU gets the 5th Seed: If they beat Missouri and Colorado loses at home to Iowa State.
If this happens: Nebraska would turn around and face Missouri again at 2:00 p.m. on Thursday on ESPN+/ESPNU. If they win, they'd get a shot at aTm again at 2:00 p.m. on Friday.

NU gets the 6th Seed: If they beat Missouri and Colorado beats Iowa State OR if Nebraska loses to Missouri and Iowa St., Texas Tech and Kansas St. all lose their games this weekend.
If this happens: Nebraska would face Baylor at approximately 8:30 p.m. Thursday on ESPN2. If they win, they'd face the team that loses this Sunday's Oklahoma/Texas game, as that team will get the 3 seed.

NU gets the 7th Seed: If they lose to Missouri and one and only one of the following teams--Texas Tech, Kansas St., Iowa St.--win their game this weekend.
If this happens: Nebraska could face Oklahoma St., Kansas St. or Texas Tech at 6:00 on Thursday on ESPNU/ESPN+. If they would win, they'd have Kansas in the second round. Woo hoo!

NU gets the 8th Seed: If they lose to Missouri and two and only two of the following teams--Texas Tech, Kansas St., Iowa St.--win their game this weekend.
If this happens: Nebraska could face Iowa St., Kansas St. or Texas Tech at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday on ESPNU/ESPN+. If they win, they'd get the Texas/OU winner on Friday.

NU gets the 9th Seed: If they lose to Missouri and Texas Tech, Kansas St. and Iowa St. all win their games this weekend:
If this happens: Nebraska wold face Iowa ST. at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday on ESPNU/ESPN+. If they win, they'd get the Texas/OU winner on Friday.

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