Pre Weekend Bubble Roundup

After a lot of NCAA Bubble-relevant games the last few days, its worth taking a look at which teams made significant strides or falls during the week as we head into the weekend:

Up off the bubble? (teams closer to becoming a lock)

Syracuse: Back to back wins against L'Ville and Monday against West Virginia now get them over .500 in the Big East and an RPI at 30. If they go 2-1 in their final 3, I think they're a lock.

Michigan: Win over Illinois Tuesday assures them at least .500 conference record and a big RPI move. Looking really good.

Kentucky: Hard to tell how important the three wins in a row against SEC also-rans will be. The next three games could be a mess (@LSU, @Tenn, Fla). Lose all three and Kentucky will be sweating on Selection Sunday. One win in those games combined with a tourney win should be enough though.

Down off the bubble? (teams that may have played themselves out of any shot)

Seton Hall: Losses to Notre Dame and now to St. John's back to back may have done them in. With an RPI at 52, they may be able to play themselves back in.

Maryland: Loss at FSU may have been an elimination game. They'll have to pull at least one upset to get to .500 in conference. With a lot of other ACC teams moving up, Maryland is in big trouble.

Up on the bubble? (teams that might now get some consideration)

Arkansas: There may be RPI issues, but they've almost guaranteed themselves a .500+ record in the SEC with recent wins against Florida and Alabama.

Texas A & M: 4 wins in a row now, the latest at Missouri. Everyone keeps looking for a fourth Big XII team, and if aTm finishes fourth in the conference with an RPI around 50, they'll be it.

Bradley: Crushed Northern Iowa last night and now there are 6 MVC teams seriously in the mix. While I don' t think there's a chance the conference gets 6 in, I think it more likely that Bradley may take Southern Illinois' spot.

Down on the bubble? (teams that are no longer locks)

West Virginia: While they're kind of a sexy pick with great white hopes of Pittsnogle and Gansey (and his T-shirt) and last year's run, they've now lost three straight and have an RPI at 33. With L'ville, Pitt and Cincy to finish out the year, the Mountaneers may not want to get too comfortable.

Big XII Tourney Projections (updated 2/23)

Here are the current standings as of Thursday Morning:

Kansas 11-2
Texas 11-2
Oklahoma 9-4
Colorado 7-6
aTm 7-6
Nebraska 7-6
Texas Tech 6-7
K-State 5-8
Iowa St. 5-8
Okie St. 4-9
Mizzou 4-9
Baylor 2-11

Here is how I project the season to end for each team

Texas (KU, @aTm, OU) 14-2
Kansas (@Tex, CU, @KSU) 13-3
Oklahoma (KSU, OSU, @Tex) 11-5
aTm (Neb, Tex, @TT) 9-7
Colorado (Mizzou, @KU, ISU) 9-7
Nebraska (@aTm, KSU, @Mizzou) 8-8
Texas Tech (@OSU @Bay, aTm) 7-9
ISU (@Bay, Mizzou, @CU) 7-9
OSU (TT, @OU, Bay) 6-10
Mizzou (@CU, @ISU, NU) 5-11
KSU (@OU, @NU, KU) 5-11
Baylor (ISU, TT, @OSU) 2-14

Then the Tourney would be:

#8 Iowa St. vs. #9 Oklahoma St., 11:30 a.m. (ESPN+)
winner vs. #1 Texas, 11:30 a.m. Friday (ESPN+)

#5 Colorado vs. #12 Baylor, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN+)
winner vs. #4 aTm, 2:00 Friday (ESPN+)

#7 Texas Tech vs. #10 Missouri, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN+)
winner vs. #2 Kansas, 6:00 p.m. Friday (ESPN+)

#6 Nebraska . vs. #11 Kansas St., 8:20 p.m. (ESPN2)
winner vs. #3 Oklahoma, 8:20 p.m. Friday (ESPN+)

I think the 6 seed would be nice, not only for the game time and national exposure, but of the top 4 seeds, I'd like another matchup with Oklahoma rather than Kansas or Texas.

Also, I'm beginning to think that the 5 seed would be better than the 4 seed for Nebraska, if we can get up there. Either way, it would likely result in a second round matchup with Colorado or Texas A & M, although if we're the 5 seed we get to rack up a likely win against Baylor first, which may hurt our RPI slightly, but make our record look even gaudier. In any case, its just another win to add to our NCAA resume may make it worthwhile.

The good news is it looks like we're staying out of that crappy 8/9 slot that not only gets to face the #1 seed, but also plays an 11:30 game on the first day. Ugh.

How Large is the Bubble?

I'm a such a wannabe Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm. I like to get going on my projections for the Tourney about every year at this time (I already put in for a day off on the Friday of the first round--also St. Patrick's Day).

This year I thought it was worth taking a look at how big the bubble really is. Since Nebraska was on it a few days ago, I was more interested at that time, but just in case we reel off four straight to win the season, its worth knowing whether to get excited, like when I got my first ever Powerball ticket last Saturday night, or not.

The first task is to determine how many slots are already filled. This can be done by first listing the Conferences that will likely not get any at-large bids, as they will probably get one and only one bid. So, I've done that below. The conferences have the team(s) listed next to them that is the favorite to win that conference's tournament.

1. MAAC (Iona/Manhattan)
2. Big Sky (Northern Arizona/Montana)
3. Ohio Valley (Murray St.)
4. Southlan (Northwestern St.)
5. Big South (Winthrop)
6. Southern (Georgia Southern)
7. Ivy (Penn)
8. Big West (Pacific)
9. Northeast (Fairliegh-Dickinson)
10. America East (Albany)
11. Mid-Continent (IUPUI)
12. Atlantic sun (Lipscomb/Belmont)
13. MEAC (Deleware St.)
14. SWAC (Southern)
15. Horizon (Wis-Mil)
16. MAC (Akron)
17. Sun Belt (Western Kentucky)
18. Patriot (Bucknell)

Then there are the teams that have already sewn up a bid, but are the only teams in their conferences that have done so. If these teams do not win their Conference Tournaments, they'll still be in, but there will be one less bubble spot available due to the automatic bid.

19. Gonzaga (West Coast)
20. George Mason (Colonial)
21. Memphis (C-USA)
22. George Washington (A-10)
23. Nevada (WAC)

Then, the teams from multi-bid conferences that have wrapped up their spot:

24. Illinois
25. Iowa
26. Wisconsin
27. Michigan St.
28. Ohio St.
29. Villanova
30. Pitt
31. UCONN
32. West Virginia
33. Georgetown
34. Marquette
35. Duke
36. Boston College
37. NC State
38. North Carolina
39. Florida
40. Tennessee
41. LSU
42. Texas
43. Oklahoma
44. Kansas
45. UNI
46. Wichita St.
47. UCLA
48. Arizona

And that leaves a grand total of 17 spots to be divided between the bubble teams. Remember for each team like Gonzaga and George Mason that is knocked out of their conference tourney early, there is one less spot on the bubble. That same phenomenon would happen if a team not listed above wins a major conference tournament (i.e. Colorado wins the Big XII, Washington wins the Pac-10), although there is then also usually one less bubble team vying for the remaining bubble spots.

So Who are those teams battling for those 17 spots? Right now, here's what I think:

Michigan
Cincy
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Maryland
Virginia
Florida St.
Kentucky
Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado
Southern Illinois
Missouri St.
Creighton
Bradley
Washington
Cal
Air Force
San Diego St.
BYU
Utah St.
UAB
Houston
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Western Kentucky
Bucknell

That's 26 teams. A few of the bubble teams (like Bucknell and Western Kentucky) are also the favorites in their conference, so if they win their conference tourney, there will be fewer teams vying for the bubble spots.

I tried to make the list of teams that are in fairly stable so that no one is going to play themselves off that list in the next couple weeks, so that means that teams that are very likely to make it, like Creighton and Michigan, are not yet listed as "in". But the bubble list I've made is completely static. Any of those 26 teams could move off the bubble in either direction in the coming weeks, and other teams may move onto the bubble in that time as well.