Stats Don't Lie...Most of the Time

MCM, Pope and nearly every non-sports Blogger in America has directed my attention to the editorial by Larry David explaining why he isn't going to see Brokeback Mountain, which was quite entertaining. (The article, I mean. I haven't seen the movie).

In reality, I, like David, need to watch my step around that movie, not to mention the fact that I've now seen every syndicated episode of "Will & Grace" (of course, just because I always happen to be in the room when my wife is watching), as I think I already have something of a man-crush on a guy named Ken Pomeroy.

Part of the reason is that when I found his blog last year, he consistently had the most accurate College Hoops RPI numbers available on the net (that was before the NCAA made the RPI formula public for this year). As I continued to use his site daily, I got acquainted with his stats for "Offensive Efficiency" and "Defensive Efficiency", which are pretty simple, but to me, interesting. Now, ESPN.com has jumped on his bandwagon and within the last few weeks has hired him as a contributor. I guess my days of emailing him with questions about RPI scenarios will soon be long gone.

Ken says here more elequoently what I am now going to attempt to explain. Basically, the NCAA and nearly all media outlets report College hoops points per game and points allowed per game as a measure of which offenses and defenses more efficient. However, that stat does not take into account the pace of any game. Thus, if a team has more possessions, they are going to have more opportunities to score, and will likely have a higher PPG than a team with significantly less possessions per game, even if the latter team is more efficient.

Here are the formulas:

Offensive Efficiency(OE) = Points scored / (100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency(DE) = Points allowed / (100 possessions)

Ken's site uses a "raw" number and an "adjusted" number for each of these stats. The raw number uses a team’s actual stats, not including games against non-D1 competition. The adjusted figure makes allowances for the competition faced, and in the case of efficiency, for the site of the game, and gives slightly more weight to more recent games. I prefer the raw number for crunching these numbers as I'm not quite sure how he accounts for these other factors.

Interestingly, Colorado ranks as the #2 offense according to the NCAA, but since they've tended to play at a bit of a crazy pace this year, they're the #20 in raw offensive efficiency. An example of a team that has a lot of success in a deliberate offense is Xavier, who is #6 in raw offensive efficency, but doesn't even make the NCAA's top 50 in points per game.

Defensively, the same things happens. When the NCAA Tourney rolls around, don't get suckered into picking Air Force as your big 13/4 upset because they have the #1 defense in the country. In reality, out of all 334 Division 1 teams, only Temple, Deleware St., Samford, Richmomnd and (as you might guess) Princeton play more of a slowdown game than AFA based upon the Pomeroy possessions per game statistics. That translates to Air Force having only the 49th best numbers in the nation for raw defensive efficiency.

In any case, this may or may not bore most of you, but I always am annoyed by the fact that so many pundits glean their predictions off of statistics like PPG in college basketball. I've got the same problem with the way the leaders Rushing Defense, Offense and Passing Defense and Offense are calculated by the NCAA football statistics department. I'm sure I'll post on that as football season draws closer.

Oh, and for you Husker fans:

-Nebraska plays at the 119th fastest pace in the nation. Right in the middle.

-Nebraska ranks as the 150th offense accorcing to the NCAA, but as the 170th according to Pomeroy's adjusted and raw numbers.

-Nebraska ranks as the 73rd best scoring defense according to the NCAA, but as the 21st best according to Pomeroy's raw efficiency number.

Things I Think are Overrated

1. Wedding Crashers- I'm going to think of an idea for a movie that is good for 15 minutes. Then I'm going to beat it like a dead horse for another 2 hrs.
2. New Years- I think I'm 3/28 as far as fun goes for new years.
3. Texas Hold 'em- If you think about it, it's really not that fun.
4. California- Whats so cool about fires, mudslides, earthquakes, smog, rain season and traffic? Ok they do have commercials with Eric Estrada.
5. American Idol- People who can't sing should not be put on TV to be told they can't sing.
6. Capri Pants- Somehow women have found a way to wear them in the winter. The only people that have an excuse to wear capri pants are people that live in New Orleans. And even they shouldn't wear them.
7. Ansel Adams posters- Trees have snow on them when its snowing. Neat.

You're More than Welcome

I've always kind of laughed when someone tells me that I'm "more than welcome" to do something, as if there is some feasible but unnamed zone of freedom to engage in an offered activity that is so free of any encubrance that it actually goes to an entirely different level...we're talking about an unknown level...beyond "welcome".

After giving it some thought, if I am welcome by another person to do something, I guess that means they'll accept my participation. But if you enter the "more than welcome" zone, are you than obligated to participate? Isn't that just a nice way of saying "You're not only welcome, but I'd be kind of pissed if you didn't do this".

In any case, I just wanted to tell anyone new to this blog, that you're more than welcome to come back whenever you'd like. And since The Option Blog is two days old, I guess "new to this blog" includes pretty much everyone

In any case, The Option contributors hope you enjoy your stay. We're probably going to take you in several different directions, all of which are almost certainly of interest to you if you're a male between the ages of 25 and 40 (I had to keep that upper limit down because I guarantee I'll post something about video games within the next few weeks), and it'll probably help if you're a maniacal Husker fan. In other words, this is the place to find alternating bitching and overconfidence about Nebraska football, basketball and baseball, commentary on the entire sports world, music, politics, religion, technology, video games, movies, food, drink and cigars. The thing we've got in common is that we're all about the same age, we're Husker fans, and we all like to tell everyone in sight about our thoughts.

You're more than welcome to read on. But if you leave any mean-spirited comments, I just might get litigious on your ass.

Best Radio Stations in the United States

I used to work for an advertising agency that placed ads all over the US. My job was to place my clients commercials on a radio station and get the most bang for the buck. I used to be able to tell you the stations that had the highest ratings in the country. This didn't always equate to a good station, but would put more ears listening to our ads. Since we couldn't listen to the stations physically everyday they sometimes would send us sample CD's of the music they played. This is where I'm coming up with what I think are some of the best stations in the country. People in our office used to fight over the following sample CD's.


1. KCRW-FM Santa Monica, CA KCRW has become highly influential in the music industry; Nick Harcourt has particular clout as many music executives listen to Morning Becomes Eclectic whilst stuck in Los Angeles' infamous morning traffic. KCRW has been credited with discovering or promoting many artists, including Beck, Coldplay, Dido, and Norah Jones.
Download: Sufjan Stevens- Chicago (Live on KCRW)


2. KEXP-FM Seattle, WA (formerly KCMU) is a public radio station based in Seattle, Washington, that specializes in independent and alternative rock programmed by its disk jockeys. Its broadcasting license is owned by the University of Washington, which operates the station in a partnership with Paul Allen's Experience Music Project.
Download: Brendan Benson- Spit It Out (Live on KEXP)


3. WXRT-FM Chicago, IL XRT, as it is affectionately called, plays a very broad library of mostly adult-oriented rock music between the mid-1950s and present, including blues, reggae, folk-rock, pop music, and rock 'n' roll. There has been remarkably little disc jockey turnover at XRT since it began in 1972. The station is hard to define musically. They play well over 2,000 cuts on a regular basis. Most artists come from the Classic Rock or Alternative rock genre, though they play many other styles. The format as it exists today began in 1972 as a night-time-only progressive rock radio experiment, sharing the 93.1 frequency with a variety of different ethnic and foreign language programming that aired during the daylight hours.
Download: Big Head Todd and the Monsters- Broken Hearted Savior (Live on WXRT Studio-X)


4. KBCO-FM is an adult album alternative radio station licensed to Boulder, Colorado and serves the Denver-Boulder area. The station's format is an ecletic variety of blues, reggae, folk, pop, and rock from the late-1960s to the present, which they call "world class rock".
Download: Drive-By Truckers (Live on KBCO Studio-C)

Fonseca 5/50

DISCLAIMER: I've recently taken up smoking cigars as a hobby and want to share my experiences with various smokes with all of you. Before I get to far into this review let me lay the groundwork for this and future reviews.

First, I'm a relative cigar newbie so read accordingly. I'm a big fan of top25cigar.com, and will be adopting their "no snob" approach to reviewing my smokes. Second, since a line of cigars can vary from stick to stick you shouldn't form an opinion on a brand unless you've smoked a couple of them. Third, inform yourself from a variety of sources. Read onlines reviews (like those at top25cigar.com), ask friends, and once you find a smoke you like ask your local tobaccanist for a similar cigar you would like to try.

I'm going to develop a scale for the cigars, 1 to 5:
1. "Hyman Roth" A dog turd of a cigar, one I won't smoke again, and would warn others not to try.
2. "The Fredo", this stick tries, but nothing I would actively seek out mostly because I'm unsure if it will result in a pleasing smoke.
3. "The Brasi" a solid cigar that will be a trustworthy smoke pulled from your humi.
4. "The Consigliere" a sophisticated smoke, one that I will smoke again and would recommend to friends with confidence.
5. "The Don" An exceptional cigar, worthy of purchasing by the box. A choice smoke that I would pass out at a daughters wedding.

Now that the groundword is laid, on with the review.


With the beautiful (for Nebraska) weather we are experiencing, I took the opportunity yesterday afternoon to light up a cigar while studying outside on my patio. I grabbed a Fonseca 5/50 from my humi. The 5/50 is a robusto, not suprisingly its 5 inches in length, with a ring guage fo 50. The label is gold with a distinctive script F in red with the word Fonseca running down the middle of the F.

The 5/50 has a connecticut wrapper, light in color. The wrapper had a creamy aftertaste, common with other connecticuts I have smoked. The 'gar lit nicely, the first third burned a little uneven, but was near perfect after that, and had good draw throughout . The taste was slightly bitter at first, but that quickly vanished, replaced with a nice mild and smooth smoke. This was a perfect afternoon cigar, because it was so smooth and light.

The stick had a woody tast, but no noticeable flavor; not bland, just unexciting. It produced a nice amount of smoke. The ash was was a medium gray and held together pretty well, however you could see it breaking apart in places.

Final grade: 3
I'll try the Fonseca again, under the right conditions. Perfect for a time when you want a cigar but don't want it to knock it off your feet.

Read how others rated of the Fonseca 5/50.

Sean Taylor's Saliva

(Photo courtesy of Doug Benc/Getty/SI.com)

While I'm not sure if it rivals the snot all over Al Harris' face after he picked off Matt Hasselbeck in to win a playoff game two years ago as the greatest facial-bodily fluid play ever to occur in a playoff game in January, the Sean Taylor Spitting incident was pretty confusing and exciting as it resulted in one of the most blatant, clear, and seen-by-the-ref physical attacks which ended up not being flagged that I've ever seen.

But check out this video, which I found on Deadspin, which is great because it includes not only visual evidence of the messy spittle coming from Taylor but actual audio of referee Mike Carey's discussions with other referees and the Redskins about the call.

While Carey, in my opinion, has shown himself to be the most talented referee in the NFL at explaning his reasoning for ruling on replays, I fail to understand why Pittman doesn't get a flag for smacking Taylor in retaliation. Apparently it is not unsportsmanlike to retailiate. I wonder if the same would have held true if Taylor swung at Pittman rather than hocked a lugie. It wasn't like it was necessary to defend himself. Just a thought. Former 'Canes suck.

You may also remember, that this isn't the first problem the former Cane has had keeping himself on the field. Who says Marcus Vick doesn't have an NFL future?

The best cigar of 2005, and perhaps 2006 (already)

This was my favorite cigar in 2005. I've only had one cigar in 2006 (see picture thanks of Gurhka.com) but it may turn out to be the winner for the year. Luca was friendly enough to share the Gurkha with me from the bundle he won at one of my new favorite webistes, cigarbid.com, (which is permanently linked on the sidebar), and we enjoyed it on one of the many balmy January nights we've seen so far.

Seriously, if you like cigars, take a look at that site--its a good way to buy a few or an assortment without having to buy a box until you know what you like.

That John Denver...

The weather in Nebraska has been absolutely crazy for the last month. And by absolutely crazy, I mean luscious. When I realized that half of the people in my office were making plans to golf this afternoon, I started to wonder about global warming. To quote the late Mike Peterson (MCM can correct me if this isn't accurate), we can discuss the science of global warming or we can sit around and talk, and I don't know a damn thing about the science of global warming.

So, I think the next scapegoat (I don't quite know if that's the right word to use when I'm referring to one who is responsible for what I'd consider a positive turn of events) is the good Old Farmers' Almanac. Check out what it had to say about the "North Central Region" for January and February:

January 20061st-3rd. Snow. 4th-7th. Stormy, with snow for the Dakotas,
Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa. Mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain for
Kansas and Missouri. 8th-11th. Unsettled, with blustery winds. 12th-15th.
Clearing. Chilly winds diminish. 16th-19th. Stormy. Heavy snow for the
Northern Rockies, with 8 to 16 inches possible. 20th-23rd. Clearing skies
and cold. 24th-27th. Unsettled and blustery. 28th-31st. Clouds, wind, and
snow.

February 20061st-3rd. Blizzard, with 16 inches possible. Clearing
away by the 3rd. 4th-7th. Fair and much colder. 8th-11th. Unsettled, with
snow for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, and sleet for Kansas and
Missouri. 12th-15th. More stormy weather. 16th-19th. Clearing and colder.
20th-23rd. Snow spreads east. 24th-28th. Yet another round of stormy weather
pushes in.

Yeah, I wouldn't describe today as "unsettled" or "blustery", other than the slight breeze that is caused by all of the golf clubs being simultaneously swung.

So, the moral of the story is, while its OK for me to say in August 2005 that Boston College will end up in the ACC Title game and the final top 10 and end up being wrong, it is not OK for the Farmers' Almanac to miss out on today's weather with a prediction that was proffered approximately 6 months ago.

I hope the Farmers' Almanac is as innacurate with their predictions for February as I was about Tennessee cruising through SEC East.

No better way to kick-off The Option Blog...

Than with everyone's all-time favorite pic.

Welcome aboard--it's a little early to tell what you'll end up reading here, but it will likely span the gamut from politics to college football to music to cigars to nintendo games. I'll save most of my rants to making absurd sports predictions, but the rest of the authors will make this one well-ass rounded place to be.